Western Costa del Sol Property Market 2026: Prices per m², Sales and 2027 Forecast

The western Costa del Sol, from Estepona and Manilva through Casares to Sotogrande, has been one of the strongest property markets in Spain in 2026. Prices per square metre are at or near record highs, international demand is high, and fewer homes are changing hands than in the busiest months of 2025.

This guide pulls together the latest figures for Estepona, Casares, Manilva and Sotogrande: what a square metre costs, how much prices have risen, how many homes are selling and who is buying. It ends with our outlook for 2027 and what it means if you are thinking of buying or selling.

The market in one minute

• Prices are still rising. Idealista’s September 2026 report shows Estepona at a record €5,021/m² (+17.1% in a year) and Manilva at a record €3,043/m² (+11.3%).

• Sotogrande is up about 14.5% year on year (June 2026), at roughly €3,840/m².

• Casares has the most volatile figures, mostly because it is a small market where a few large villas can move the average.

• Sales are slower, prices are higher. Early-2026 sales in the Marbella–Estepona–Benahávis area fell sharply, while the wider Málaga province recovered in the second quarter.

• Foreign buyers are about 37% of purchases in Málaga province, compared with a Spanish average of about 16%.

• 2027 looks like a year of slower growth, not a fall. National forecasts point to roughly 4% to 7% price growth, down from the double-digit pace of 2025 and 2026.

Price per square metre: Estepona, Casares, Manilva and Sotogrande

These are average asking prices from Idealista’s price reports, the most widely used benchmark for listings in the area.

What does €400,000 buy?

Dividing a €400,000 budget by each area’s average asking price gives a rough idea of the space you can expect. Real homes vary a lot by location, age and finish, and this ignores taxes and purchase costs.

Why different websites show different prices

You may see Estepona quoted at anything from about €3,900 to over €5,000 per m². These are not errors. They measure different things:

• Asking prices (Idealista, Fotocasa) reflect what sellers want, and in Estepona they are pulled up by new-build and luxury listings.

• Registered sale prices (Registradores) reflect completed deals. For the whole of Málaga province, the registry figure for the second quarter of 2026 was about €3,347 per built m².

• Appraisal values (Ministry of Housing) are usually lower again. The ministry put Málaga province at about €2,988/m² in early 2026, up 14.2% on the year.

When you compare a specific home, look at similar properties in the same street or urbanisation, and ask what comparable homes have actually sold for.

Estepona: the fastest riser

Estepona has moved into a different price bracket. At €5,021/m² it is now close to Marbella and well above Fuengirola, and its 17.1% annual rise is among the strongest on the coast.

The drivers are clear: a walkable old town, a marina, beaches, a steady flow of new developments in areas such as Cancelada and the New Golden Mile, and a lifestyle that costs less than Marbella. Dutch buyers are the largest foreign group in the town (about 15% of foreign purchases in the 12 months to April 2026), and around nine in ten of them buy as non-residents, usually for a second home.

Expect big differences within the town. A resale apartment inland can cost far less per square metre than a new beachfront development, so the municipal average says little about any single home.

Manilva: the value end of the western coast

Manilva is the most affordable of the four, and it is catching up. Idealista shows a record €3,043/m² in September 2026, up 11.3% in a year. Within the municipality, the picture in June 2026 was:

British buyers make up about one in five foreign purchases in Manilva, and around 30% of them buy as residents. Lower entry prices, a marina, beaches and good connections explain why many buyers who are priced out of Estepona look here instead.

Casares: golf, countryside and a volatile average

Casares covers the white village in the hills as well as the coastal strip around Casares Costa and Doña Julia, so its numbers swing. Idealista’s series moved from about €4,000/m² in January 2026 to about €3,600 in April, and the latest published figure is €3,197 for August. Other price tools put the municipality between roughly €3,250 (apartments) and €3,500 (houses) per m².

Our reading: Casares is a thin market, so one or two high-value villa listings can move the monthly average by hundreds of euros. Over a longer period, prices have risen strongly, and Belgian and Dutch buyers, mostly buying second homes, are an important part of demand.

Sotogrande: prime, tight and increasingly international

Sotogrande, in San Roque at the western edge of the Costa del Sol, is the area with the highest share of long-stay British buyers: British buyers represent roughly 41% of foreign transactions, with about 42% of them registering as residents.

Idealista’s June 2026 report shows:

Sotogrande’s average hides a very wide range. Plots and large villas in La Reserva and Sotogrande Alto trade at far higher prices per square metre than apartments, and other sources that survey the market publish lower averages (around €3,100 to €3,300 for houses), depending on method.

Sales volumes: fewer deals, higher prices

Prices have outrun the number of transactions in 2026:

• First quarter: the Registradores recorded 1,566 home sales in Marbella, Estepona and Benahávis combined, about 30% fewer than a year earlier. INE data showed Málaga province transactions down 9.3% in the same quarter.

• Second quarter: Málaga province registered 9,387 home sales, up 8.7% on the year while Spain overall fell 5.7%.

• Foreign buyers: they took 37.01% of purchases in Málaga province in the second quarter, second only to Alicante and well above the Spanish record of 15.98%. In absolute terms, foreign buyers bought 3,474 homes in the province, 20.8% more than a year earlier.

Municipal figures for the registry usually arrive about two quarters after the provincial ones, so we will update the town-level picture as new data are published. The pattern so far looks like a supply-constrained market normalising after a very busy 2025, not a market in retreat.

Why prices have risen so quickly

• Limited supply: good new-build land on the coast is scarce and new housing across Spain is not keeping pace with demand. BBVA Research estimates a national shortfall of around 800,000 homes by 2027.

• International demand: the Costa del Sol attracts Northern European buyers year after year, and many pay without needing a mortgage.

• Lifestyle: international schools, golf, marinas, airports, healthcare and a year-round climate.

• Comparison with other coasts: buyers see Estepona, Manilva and Sotogrande as better value than Marbella or the Balearic Islands.

Our 2027 forecast for the western Costa del Sol

Below is our own outlook, based on national forecasts and the local data above. It is an estimate, not a guarantee, and we will update it as new information arrives.

What the national forecasters expect for 2027

BBVA Research expects Spanish home prices to rise about 5.5% in 2027 after about 11.5% in 2026. Other forecasts for 2027 include roughly +4% from Bankinter, +7.4% from S&P Global Ratings and 6% to 8% from Fitch. The common message is a slowdown to mid-single digits, not a correction, largely because supply remains short.

Our base case

We expect asking prices in the western Costa del Sol to rise roughly 4% to 7% in 2027, below the double-digit pace of the past two years.

Town by town (base case, indicative)

Risks and signals to watch

• Interest rates: the ECB raised rates in June 2026, its first increase in almost three years, and 12-month Euribor was around 3.3% in early October. Mortgage-dependent buyers are more price-sensitive than cash buyers. The next ECB meeting is on 29 October.

• Energy prices and geopolitics: they affect the wider economy and investor confidence.

• Regulation: the proposed 100% tax on non-EU buyers of resale property had stalled in Congress as of March 2026, and many lawyers doubt it would survive legal challenge, but it has created uncertainty. Short-term rental rules and local planning decisions also matter for investors.

• New supply: a faster flow of completed new homes would ease price growth.

• Affordability: at these levels, local buyers are priced out, and eventually demand from abroad has to carry more of the market.

What this means for buyers

• Look beyond the municipal average. Compare per-square-metre prices within the specific area, and between new-build and resale.

• Budget for the full cost. Taxes, notary, registry and legal fees add to the purchase price. If you will own as a non-resident, annual non-resident tax also applies, which you can estimate with EasySpanishTax.

• Use the slower sales pace. With fewer transactions, there is more room to negotiate on homes that have been on the market for a while, especially where asking prices are above recent comparable sales.

• Check the details: legal status, community fees, licences, energy certificate and, for new builds, bank guarantees and completion dates.

What this means for sellers

• Price against completed sales, not other listings. Asking prices have risen faster than registered prices in many areas.

• Presentation matters more as the market normalises. Professional photography and accurate descriptions help homes stand out.

• Plan the tax side early. If you are a non-resident, the buyer withholds 3% of the price, and the final capital gains tax is settled afterwards.

Frequently asked questions

What is the price per square metre in Estepona in 2026? Idealista’s September 2026 report shows an average asking price of about €5,021 per m², a record and about 17% higher than a year earlier. Registered sale prices and appraisals are lower, and prices vary widely between central apartments and new-build or beachfront homes.

Which is cheapest: Estepona, Casares, Manilva or Sotogrande? Manilva has the lowest average asking price (about €3,043 per m²), followed by Casares (about €3,200), Sotogrande (about €3,840) and Estepona (about €5,020).

Are property prices still rising on the western Costa del Sol? Yes. Estepona, Manilva and Sotogrande all show double-digit annual increases in the latest Idealista data. Growth is expected to slow in 2027.

Will prices fall in 2027? Most national forecasts point to further increases of roughly 4% to 8%, not a fall. The main risks are higher interest rates, new regulation and a slowdown in foreign demand.

Who is buying on the western Costa del Sol? Foreign buyers took about 37% of home purchases in Málaga province in the second quarter of 2026. Locally, Dutch buyers lead in Estepona, British buyers are prominent in Manilva and Sotogrande, and Belgian and Dutch buyers feature in Casares.

Is it a good time to buy? That depends on your budget, time horizon and plans. The market is rising but cooling, which gives buyers more room to negotiate than in 2025. For personal advice, speak to a local adviser.

Talk to Enova Estates

Our team knows Estepona, Casares, Manilva and Sotogrande street by street. Browse our current properties for sale or get in touch for a view on pricing, whether you are buying or selling.

Data sources

• Idealista price report: Manilva

• Idealista price report: Casares

• Idealista price report: Sotogrande

• Área Costa del Sol: September 2026 price comparison by municipality (Idealista data)

• Málaga property market Q2 2026 (Registradores data)

• Costa del Sol foreign buyers by nationality (Notaries data via Bloy Dawson)

• BBVA Research forecast update, via Idealista News

• Reuters on the stalled 100% non-EU buyer tax

This article is general market information and not financial, legal or tax advice. Prices are averages and vary by property. Forecasts are estimates and may not materialise. Check current figures and take professional advice before buying or selling.